Evidence
Separate what is proven, observed, asserted, and unknown. Inference must point back to the evidence that supports it.
Independent assurance method
Evidence. Reach. Blast radius. Decision.
A versioned method for producing defensible AI security judgment without letting a framework checklist substitute for evidence or professional judgment.
Reach
Map identities, data, tools, memory, dependencies, and actions.
Blast radius
Trace credible failure paths and the business impact they can create.
Decision
State what must be controlled now, next, and later—and why.
The central question
What happens after the model answers?
The method treats the AI system as an execution surface, not a chatbot. It follows the chain from untrusted instruction to identity, retrieval, tool use, business action, evidence, and interruption.
That keeps the assessment focused on consequential authority rather than a generic catalog of theoretical AI risks.
Scenario-based exposure analysis
Translate technical failure into business consequences without fake precision.
The review evaluates credible scenarios across data exposure, unauthorized action, operational disruption, customer harm, recovery cost, and loss of trust. Estimates are expressed as ranges with confidence and uncertainty—not as actuarial predictions.
Failure path
What input, identity, memory, connector, permission, or missing control begins the scenario?
Reach and consequence
Which data, systems, people, transactions, and downstream workflows can be affected?
Confidence and unknowns
Which parts are proven, observed, asserted, inferred, or still unknown—and how does that limit the decision?
No single magic number. When financial ranges are useful, assumptions and uncertainty are documented explicitly so a scenario estimate cannot masquerade as a prediction.
Evidence states
A conclusion should never look more certain than its evidence.
Every material claim receives an explicit confidence state. Unsupported assurances remain visible as unknowns instead of quietly becoming facts.
ProvenDirectly supported by sufficient evidence
ObservedSeen in a walkthrough, test, or artifact
AssertedStated by an owner but not independently supported
UnknownA material question remains unanswered
Inference is analysis, not evidence. An analytical inference must cite the evidence and reasoning that support it; it cannot make an assertion appear observed or proven.
Review flow
Four phases after the scope is agreed.
Start
Scope the decision and prepare the evidence
Define the business decision, system boundary, authorization, handling terms, responsible owners, minimum evidence, fixed fee, and delivery schedule.
01
Map the execution surface
Model architecture, identities, trust boundaries, data, retrieval, tools, integrations, external actions, human approvals, and interruption paths.
02
Challenge the claims
Compare design intent with observed behavior and available evidence. Trace untrusted input, authority inheritance, permission accumulation, and highest-impact failure paths.
03
Measure reach and blast radius
Determine what a compromised prompt, identity, memory, connector, or control failure could expose, change, or trigger across the business.
04
Issue the decision
Complete a founder-led consistency check, document confidence and remaining unknowns, prioritize conditions, and deliver a signed proceed, proceed-with-conditions, or pause decision.
Negative space
What is missing is part of the assessment.
A missing owner, approval path, evidence source, interrupt control, retention rule, or stated boundary can matter as much as a misconfigured control. The review keeps those omissions visible instead of rewarding a polished diagram.
Framework use
Cross-walked, not framework-led.
Applicable findings can be mapped to NIST AI RMF, NIST CSF, the OWASP Top 10 for Agentic Applications, MITRE ATLAS, and other relevant sources. The evidence and decision remain primary.
NIST AI RMFNIST CSFOWASP Top 10 for Agentic ApplicationsMITRE ATLAS
Method boundary
A method for traceable judgment—not a certification.
The method structures analysis and makes judgment traceable. It does not create an attestation, guarantee security, replace legal advice, or turn incomplete evidence into certainty.
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